As the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) nears its conclusion, the battle for the coveted final berth at Lord’s is heating up. With just eight Tests left across four series, five teams—South Africa, Australia, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan—remain in contention to clinch a spot in the title decider. Here’s a detailed look at each team’s chances and the permutations that could see them through.
South Africa
Current Position: 1st with 63.33% PCT
What They Need:
- A win in both remaining Tests will seal their place in the final, as only Australia can surpass them in the table.
- Even if they lose both Tests, they could still finish at 52.78%—which might be enough if Australia defeat India 3-1 and manage at least a draw against Sri Lanka.
Key Insight: South Africa currently hold the top spot and control their own fate. A pair of victories cements their ticket to Lord’s, but the Proteas could still survive a couple of defeats if other results go their way—most notably with Australia performing strongly against India and Sri Lanka.
Australia
Current Position: 2nd with 58.89% PCT
Matches Left: Four (Two against India and two against Sri Lanka)
What They Need:
- A 3-1 victory over India in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) would secure Australia’s berth, with only South Africa capable of finishing above them.
- A 2-1 win over India still keeps them in a strong position, provided they avoid losing both matches against Sri Lanka.
- If the BGT ends in a 2-2 stalemate, the Aussies need at least one victory over Sri Lanka. They would also benefit from Pakistan sweeping South Africa to limit the Proteas’ points percentage.
Key Insight: Australia enter these final fixtures in a comfortable, yet not invincible, spot. The defending champions will be keen to wrap things up with a decisive BGT win. Any missteps, however, could drag them into a web of permutations involving other teams’ results.
India
Current Position: 3rd with 55.89% PCT
What They Need:
- Winning their remaining two Tests would vault India to a percentage that guarantees a third successive WTC Final appearance
- Losing one Test makes their qualification dependent on other matches going their way.
- A 2-2 result in the BGT drops India to 55.26%, forcing them to rely on Pakistan to sweep South Africa.
- Losing both remaining matches would eliminate India from contention.
Key Insight: India, two-time WTC finalists, remain a formidable threat—especially at home. While their margin for error is slim, victory in both remaining Tests should see them through. Any slip-up, though, opens a corridor of complex outcomes favoring the likes of Australia and South Africa.
Sri Lanka
Current Position: 5th
What They Need:
- They must beat Australia 2-0 at home in their upcoming series and hope other results align.
- A Pakistan sweep of South Africa is essential, and Australia must beat India 2-1.
- If these outcomes fall perfectly, Sri Lanka could leap to the top of the table and meet Australia in the final.
Key Insight: Sri Lanka’s chances rest on multiple miracles. They need to punch above their weight against Australia while simultaneously hoping for a precise combination of upsets in other series. It’s an uphill battle, but the unpredictability of Test cricket can sometimes yield astonishing results.
Pakistan
Current Position: 7th with 33.33% PCT
What They Need:
- Victory in all four of their remaining Tests to maximize their points.
- South Africa must lose a point due to over-rate infractions.
- Only one of Australia, India, or Sri Lanka can breach 52.38% PCT in the final standings.
Key Insight: Pakistan’s qualification prospects are hanging by a thread. They require a flawless finish to their campaign, combined with a flurry of unfavorable results for the competition. Though unlikely, until the math rules them out, hope remains in the longest format of the game.